Nervous News for the Obama Camp in the Presidential Election
John Cassidy in The New Yorker did an analysis of the poll results involving the 2012 presidential election. Mitt Romney’s performance in the first debate shook up the election in a fundamental way, making the polls that much more interesting for the American people. President Obama, who once appeared to be a shoe-in for re-election, is now being forced to fight for his political life against a charging Romney who has been able to prove that his post-debate surge wasn’t just a fluke.
According to Cassidy, President Obama has a large lead with women and Romney is holding onto the men. Also, the definition of “likely voter” makes a big difference in the outcomes of the national polls as well.
And a lot depends on how you define “likely voter.” Among the wider pool of “registered voters,” Obama is still leading by five points: 49 to 44 per cent. Like most of its competitors, the polling firm that carries out the survey judges registered Republicans to be more likely to vote than registered Democrats, largely because they are older and more affluent. As a general rule, that’s surely true, but is it enough to transform a five-point race into a tie? There’s no way of knowing.
The large and powerful battleground state of Ohio is another source of concern for President Obama. Romney has been gaining ground in this crucial territory, and President Obama’s “electoral college firewall” might be in jeopardy. Cassidy notes that he might want to reconsider his assessment that certain battleground states are leaning toward President Obama.
Ohio: In my previous post, I noted that Obama’s electoral-college firewall—Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada—was just about holding up, and on The New Yorker’s electoral map I marked all of them as leaning to Obama. Two new polls in Ohio call that claim into question, but I don’t think they are sufficient to invalidate it. One of these surveys, from Gravis Marketing, had the two candidates even at 47-47. In the other poll, from Public Policy Polling, Obama was leading, but by just one point: 49 to 48.
Having Ohio tied means that the race is getting close for the president. Also, the poll results, to Cassidy, imply that President Obama didn’t get much of a bounce from his improved debate performance the other night. While more Ohio citizens feel that the president won the debate, that doesn’t mean that they are more likely to vote for him. Cassidy says that he once considered Ohio to be leaning toward Obama, but now he is wondering if that’s really the case. Even though he doesn’t change his assessment directly, he does admit that Romney is making a serious surge.
The new polls raise the question of whether I should change my call on Ohio from leaning Obama to toss-up. After seriously considering it, I decided to leave things as they are pending more data. But I don’t want to downplay the fact that Romney is making a serious run. Consider some more findings in the latest poll from P.P.P., which is widely thought to lean slightly to the Democrats. The G.O.P. candidate holds a seven-point lead among independents, 49-42; his favorability rating has risen to the point where it is basically the same as Obama’s—49 per cent versus 48 per cent; and the Republican vote is continuing to solidify. Among G.O.P. partisans, ninety per cent say they will be going out to vote for Romney, compared to eighty-five per cent this time last week.
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Nervous news for Obama is NERVE RACKING NEWS FOR THE NATION. If that ROMNEY and his crooked lying Republicans win the White House…again…as they are just BUSH CLONES…the whole nation will be in deep trouble. If people are so desperate that they would drink the MILK OF ROMNESIA…and let that man be in charge…h**l will break out everywhere.
ROMNEY has robbed this nation of jobs…shipped them overseas and gotten rich off the backs of American workers. He has told lie after lie in this campaign. WHY ANYBODY CONSIDERS VOTING FOR HIM… is a sure sign that our EDUCATION system needs big time reforming.
@Ms. Miller: AMEN, amen.
If Boyce Watkins, looked like Wesley Snipies, would Syracuse University, have hired him? Ummmmm… makes you wonder if Boyce Watkins is black enough.
You know, these polls really mean nothing, I believe the GOP uses them so when Mitt is so call winning they can use his poll machines to make President Obama’s vote disappear. I voted early for our President and I don’t really like taking poll calls, so they really mean nothing, the only thing that will count is VOTING.
Romney’s campaign has been nothing but lie after lie. I am very fearful that people are not understanding the message that he gives or have not been in tune this whole campaign season. And the fact is that Romney took advantage of the debate platform to pose his position which is the same as Obama’s. So if it is the same, and he agrees on everything, then why vote for Romney when apparently the policies he agrees with are currently in effect with our present president. But I don’t know. Some people don’t care to find out the facts. That is where television comes in. The campaign adds are not that much helpful either.
I hope that people will turn out in numbers and vote for the best candidate that are for the people and not for bullying leadership.
Talk about republican behavior such as the three ways they love stealing elections since 2000 by ,”Hanging Chads, Tabulation Manipulation, and Voter Fraud/Suppression”….If they don’t steal an election, they can’t win one…This is ASAP (A Sad A$$ Party)…!
They are the corporations
Obama campaign is unraveling. God is going to expose him for the liar he is more and more each day. He is going down because he hates this country, protects muslim enemies and hates Israel. God loves Israel. Obama also hates mosrt americans except the gAYS AND THE illegals. He is a foriegner himself , I believe so he dont care about americans. He lies constantly and really believes his own lies. He is bankrupting this country intentionally but our God is not going to allow it anymore. Obama is bad for the country, bad for americans and bad for the economy. He has to go and I will do my part to make sure by voting Romney/Ryan.
Obama has used our tax dollars to bail out GM and how does GM and Obama thank us? By building with your stimulus money car plants in other countries around the world and helping other countries get jobs with our MONEY. DID I SAY WITH OUR TAX DOLLARS. Obama dont care about jobs here. He is helping others and giving us the bill. No one has reported in the media about this. Obama cover up and lies about what he does yet says Romney is shipping jobs overseas. Obama sent my money other seas and thinks it is ok. Obama also has NO PLAN FOR AMERICA. TWO FREAKING WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION HE HAS A BOOKLET OUT THAT HAS HIS PLAN FOR AMERICA. I COULD HAVE SAVED HIM TIME AND MONEY ON THAT %$# FAKE BOOKLET. ALL HE HAD TO DO IN THE DEBATES IS SAY MORE OF THE SAME-MORE UNEMPLOYMENT- MORE HIGH GAS PRICES AND FOOD PRICES. MORE GRIDLOCK– MORE BLAMING BUSH– MORE BLAMING HILARY CLINTON- IN LIBYA HE DIDN’T KNOW. ALL HE DOES IS LIE-NO REAL BIRTH CERTIFICATE NO COLLEGE RECORDS SEALED-EVERYTHING ABOUT HIM IS A LIE-BOTE ROMNEY/RYAN 2012.
Will voting end this drought that the nation is having? Which candidate will bring the rain? Will either candidate lower food prices? Will either of them stop the rich from buying farm land for villas instead of farming it. Will the department of the interior administer farming reforms to bring the soil back to a productive state? You never hear things like this mentioned in the debates. There is famine coming to this nation and the world and no one seems to know what to do about it. Corporations do not bring rain and we cannot live without fresh water. The pentagon cannot,with all of the scientific advancement that they have, produce rain in sufficient quantities to support productive crop yields. We cannot feed our enemies as God commands us if we cannot feed ourselves.
ruthie markis simms you are so confused and misinformed. I cannot figure out where to start with your post. Romney/Ryan are counting on uninformed, easily mislead, easily influenced, easily lied to voters such as yourself to vote for them. Where were your critical comments when George Bush was taking this country down? The USA economy cannot be turned around instantly-that is not possible for any human to do. It takes a long time to clean up all the messes were are in nationally & internationally. Pres. Obama is not a foreigner – he would not have made it through all the scrutiny (including Trump’s) if that were true. Pres. Obama has been vetted by the FBI, Secret Service, & lot of USA bigots. Due to prejudice, Pres. Obama has been vetted more than any USA president ever! ruthie markis simms needs a brain scan to see if her brain is active. Romney/Ryan have lied so much & been caught in their lies-I have been tracking them. Also, Romney said what he meant when he was speaking to wealthy donors in what he thought was a private setting (secretly taped). 47%…victims…irresponsible.. dependent upon government. That shows the disdain Romney has for Americans who are struggling and who are not in his rich class. After knowing what he said which is how he feels, it is a mystery to me why anyone who is middle/working class would vote for Romney. I must
give Romney credit, he lied his way out of that statement pretty well for those who believe whatever he says.