For First Time, Electoral Map Predicts Romney as Winner
One of the most followed electoral college predictors is the Real Clear Politics Electoral College map, and up until recently, the map predicted President Obama as the winner. Now, however, the map predicts Romney as the victor in the 2012 election.
To make matters worse, Gallup has President Obama down by seven in today’s poll. Not all the polls taken since the second debate are in, and maybe President Obama will get more of a bounce in future polls, but as it stands now, it’s not looking good for the president.
New York Times statistician Nate Silver still gives President Obama a slight edge over Mitt Romney though:
Throughout this election cycle, you would have done very well by predicting that the polls would eventually settle in at an overall lead for Mr. Obama of about two percentage points. Whenever his lead has been larger than that, it has come back to earth. But Mr. Obama has also rebounded at moments when the polls seemed to suggest an even closer race.
So Mr. Silver seems to be predicting a rebound for President Obama, and, as of today, still predicts an Obama victory. But he also cautions that polls taken immediately after a debate don’t usually have much of an impact on the outcome of the election.
What does it all mean? That this race is too close to call. President Obama went into the election with McCain with a lead, but if he doesn’t pull up his numbers, he’ll be going into this upcoming election as the underdog.
What do you think he should do to pull ahead of Romney? What advice could you offer him?
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