Poll – Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 43%; Florida: Obama 53%, Romney 44%; Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, Romney 42%
A new Quinnipiac poll shows President Obama widening his lead over Republican rival Mitt Romney in swing states.
President Obama has exceeded the 50% mark in each state, and is leading on all major issues, including the economy, health care, and national security, which is somewhat surprising given Democrats’ perceived weakness on defense.
“Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The furor over his 47 percent remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The debates may be Romney’s best chance to reverse the trend in his favor.”
No president has ever been elected without winning one of these key swing states.
“The wide difference between the two candidates is not just a result of Romney’s bad week. In Ohio and Florida votes are basically split down the middle on whether the county and they and their families are worse or better off than they were four years ago. If voters don’t think they are worse off, it is difficult to see them throwing out an incumbent whose personal ratings with voters remains quite high,” Brown added.
What we don’t know yet is what impact voter suppression laws will have in these states. It may all come down to turnout, and if too many Obama supporters are disenfranchised, that could still lead to a Romney win.
In Pennsylvania, a judge has signaled that he may block at least part of the state’s voter I.D. law. On Tuesday Judge Robert Simpson asked attorneys for the state and for the civil rights and voting rights groups challenging the law what each side would include in any injunction he might issue.
This suggests that the judge will offer up an injunction against the voter I.D. law.
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